脱欧对旅行者的危害

翻译编辑：清波门 /南外英语系群

(CNN) — Food shortages. Inadequate medical supplies. Civil unrest and road blockades. Lack of fuel. Delays at the border.

That's the potential aftermath of a no-deal Brexit, as detailed by the UK government in an official document released September 11.

It's a scenario that travelers from around the world could be flying into if current plans to crash out of the European Union are followed through.

That's enough to scare off Stephen Pickett, a sales director from Toronto.

"Why would I put myself out to go and get caught up in something?" he told CNN Travel. "This isn't something I want to put myself through."

Pickett, 47, has brought forward a planned November visit to October to avoid potential disruption. And he has put plans for further visits, as well as a move to London in December, on hold.

CNN) -食物短缺。医疗用品不足。内乱和道路封锁。缺乏燃料。边境延误。

正如英国政府在9月11日发布的一份官方文件中所详细描述的那样，这是“无协议退欧”的潜在后果。

如果目前的强硬退欧计划得以实施，来自世界各地的旅客可能会遭遇这种情况。

这足以吓跑多伦多的销售总监斯蒂芬皮克特(Stephen Pickett)。

他在接受CNN旅游频道采访时表示:“我为什么要冒着被卷入其中的危险呢?”“这不是我想让自己经历的事情。”

47岁的皮克特将11月的访问计划提前到10月，以避免潜在的干扰。他已经搁置了进一步访问的计划，以及12月前往伦敦的计划。

The UK is currently set to leave the EU at 11 p.m. October 31.

And while UK nationals are concerned about how it'll affect their travel plans -- a third of British travelers are concerned that flights to Europe might be disrupted, according to a survey this week from consumer group Which? -- travelers scheduled to fly into the UK have more pressing concerns.

Across six pages, the government document, nicknamed Operation Yellowhammer, details the potential on-the-ground outcome of a no-deal Brexit.

英国目前定于10月31日晚上11点离开欧盟。

英国消费者组织Which本周进行的一项调查显示，尽管英国国民担心这将对他们的旅行计划产生何种影响，但三分之一的英国游客担心飞往欧洲的航班可能会中断。——计划飞往英国的旅客有更紧迫的担忧。

这份名为“黄哈默(Operation Yellowhammer)的政府文件长达六页，详细描述了无协议退欧可能带来的实际结果。

The UK government -- which was forced by parliament to release the document after it was leaked to the Sunday Times newspaper -- insists Yellowhammer is a "reasonable worst case" scenario. Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon, however, has said that the Scottish government was told the document was a "base scenario."

What's more, an industry expert has told CNN that in terms of travel, Yellowhammer looks "surprisingly optimistic" -- and that in the event of a no-deal, people could be waiting in border queues between the UK and the EU for days on end.

英国政府坚称，黄哈默合理的最坏情况”。在这份文件被泄露给《星期日泰晤士报》(Sunday Times)后，英国议会迫使英国政府公布了这份文件。然而，苏格兰首席大臣尼古拉·斯特金(Nicola Sturgeon)表示，苏格兰政府被告知，这份文件只是一个“基本设想”。

更重要的是，一位行业专家告诉CNN，就旅游而言，黄哈默来“出奇地乐观”——如果没有达成协议，人们可能会在英国和欧盟之间的边境排队等候数日。

Yellowhammer predicts "significant disruption lasting up to six months" for Channel crossings affecting food and medical supplies.

"Certain types of fresh food supply will decrease," it warns. Veterinary supplies may be interrupted, threatening outbreaks of disease among livestock, which could also affect the food chain.

黄哈默预测 海峡的过境会“严重中断长达6个月”，影响食品和医疗供应。

报告警告称:“某些类型的新鲜食品供应将会减少。”兽医供应可能中断，威胁到家畜间的疾病暴发，这也可能影响到食物链。

Fuel supplies in London and southeast England would be disrupted, and could domino into shortages across the country.

It also warns of a "rise in public disorder," "protests and counter-protests," and road blockages.

"There's a lot more stability in Canada, so as much as London is great, why dip my toe into something when I don't know what'll happen?" said Pickett.

Although he married a British woman in August and was hoping to move to London at the end of the year, that's now on hold.

伦敦和英格兰东南部的燃料供应将会中断，多米诺骨牌可能会引发在全国范围内的燃料短缺。

它还警告说，“公共秩序日益混乱”，“抗议和反抗议”，以及道路封锁。

皮克特说:“加拿大的局势要稳定得多，伦敦固然不错，但我不知道会发生什么，为什么还要冒险呢?”

尽管他在8月份娶了一位英国女子，并希望在今年年底搬到伦敦，但现在这一计划被搁置了。

"The plan was to come the last week of November to assess where we wanted to live and make the move at Christmas," he said. "But I don't want to spend the money and not be able to go there because of civil unrest."

He and wife Elizabeth are now looking into whether it's easier for her to move to Canada, while he has brought his trip forward by a month.

“我们的计划是在11月的最后一周来评估我们想住在哪里，并在圣诞节时搬家，”他说。“但我不想花了这笔钱，因为国内动乱而不能去那里。”

他和妻子伊丽莎白现在正在调查她搬到加拿大是否更容易，而他把行程提前了一个月。

"I wanted to get one more visit in before Brexit as we're not sure what's going to happen," he said.

"We don't know how easy it'll be to get in, what the queue will be like, or what the situation with food will be. And her parents are worried about supplies of their medication.

"If it goes on, I might be the person bringing everything over to them."

他说:“我想在英国退欧之前再来一次，因为我们不确定会发生什么。”

“我们不知道进去有多容易，排队会是什么样子，或者食物的情况会怎样。她的父母担心药物供应。

“如果事情继续下去，我可能就是那个把一切都交给他们的人。”

Pickett isn't the only traveler assessing their options. Grania O'Hare, who works for a tech company in Dublin and travels regularly to the UK, is due to fly to Yorkshire in November -- a trip booked before the Brexit date was set.

"There's definitely some slight trepidation but we're flying into a regional airport," she said. "If we were flying into Heathrow, I'd be terrified."

She said she was less concerned about food and fuel shortages in the rural north of England.

皮克特并不是唯一一个评估自己选择的旅行者。格兰尼娅•奥黑尔(Grania O'Hare)在都柏林一家科技公司工作，定期前往英国。她将于11月飞往约克郡，这是在英国退欧日期确定之前预定的行程。

她说:“确实有一些轻微的恐慌，但我们正在飞往一个地区机场。”“如果我们要飞到希思罗机场，我会很害怕。”

她说，她不太担心英格兰北部农村地区的食品和燃料短缺。

"I'm a reasonable baker and I eat a lot of plant-based produce so as long as I have lentils and flour I'll be fine. But I have booked an extra bag for the hold, so we'll probably discuss a few days beforehand what food we should bring."

The bright side for O'Hare? If Operation Yellowhammer becomes reality, it's likely the pound will also plummet in value.

"I'll probably be hitting the duty free at the airport," she said. The UK's finance minister recently announced that duty-free purchases like alcohol and cigarettes would be re-introduced, post-Brexit, for travelers heading to Europe.

“我是一个理性的面包师，我吃很多植物性食品，所以只要我吃扁豆和面粉，我就没事。但是我已经额外订了一个包，所以我们可能会提前几天讨论我们应该带些什么食物。”

奥黑尔的光明面?如果黄哈默行动成为现实，英镑很可能也会大幅贬值。

“我可能要去机场免税店了，”她说。英国财政大臣最近宣布，英国脱欧后，将重新向前往欧洲的游客推出酒精和香烟等免税商品。

Travelers should be less worried about riots and food shortages -- but they should have serious concerns about crossing between the UK and EU countries, says Tom Jenkins, CEO of ETOA, a trade association for tour operators in European destinations.

Jenkins, who is based in the UK, thinks a no deal is unlikely to happen -- British lawmakers have voted to make it illegal, so leaving without a deal would require Prime Minister Boris Johnson to break the law.

But if it does go ahead, he reckons the circumstances outlined in Yellowhammer would be "very restrained" and "surprisingly optimistic" when it comes to border crossings.

ETOA是一家面向欧洲旅游运营商的行业协会，其首席执行官汤姆•詹金斯(Tom Jenkins)表示，游客们不应该那么担心骚乱和食品短缺，但他们应该对英国和欧盟国家之间的过境感到严重担忧。

常驻英国的詹金斯认为，不达成协议的可能性不大——英国议员已经投票决定，不达成协议就离开欧盟是非法的，因此如果不达成协议，英国首相鲍里斯·约翰逊(Boris Johnson)就必须触犯法律。

但他认为，如果该计划得以实施，黄哈默所描述的情况将“非常克制”，在边境过境问题上“令人意外地乐观”。

Guidance issued by the European Commission in November 2018 states that UK citizens entering Europe's 26-nation Schengen area will be treated as "third country nationals" at passport control -- on a par with travelers from other continents.

They will no longer be able to use fast-track lanes for EU citizens, and will be diverted into the lanes currently used by other nationalities, incurring more thorough checks. Passports will be inspected to see where else they have traveled, and they will be quizzed on the duration and purpose of their stay, and whether they have enough money to subsist.

"The implication is that everyone will be held up by at least 60 seconds, and due to the sheer volume of UK travelers to Europe, this will render all these processes difficult to deliver," said Jenkins.

欧盟委员会(European Commission) 2018年11月发布的指导意见指出，进入欧洲26国申根区(Schengen area)的英国公民将在护照检查中被视为“第三国公民”，与其他大陆的游客同等对待。

他们将不再能够使用欧盟公民使用快车道，并将被改道使用其他国家公民目前使用的车道，这将招致更彻底的检查。护照将被检查，看看他们还去过哪些地方，他们将被询问逗留的时间和目的，以及他们是否有足够的钱维持生活。

詹金斯说:“这意味着每个人都会被耽搁至少60秒，而且由于英国前往欧洲的旅客人数众多，这将使所有这些过程都难以实现。

"If you're arriving at Berlin Tegel [airport] on a flight from the UK, there might be two immigration lanes per aircraft, one for EU citizens, one for non-EU citizens.

"After a no-deal Brexit, the non-EU citizen line could be 200-strong. That's a wait of three hours.

"If you have five planes arriving at the same time, you've got huge problems.

"In Spain, where you have UK flights full of Brits landing every five minutes, it'll be something spectacular."

“如果你从英国乘飞机抵达柏林泰格尔(Tegel)机场，每架飞机可能有两条移民通道，一条为欧盟公民，一条为非欧盟公民。

“在无协议退欧之后，非欧盟公民人数可能达到200人。那要等三个小时。

“如果你有五架飞机同时到达，你就会遇到很大的问题。

“在西班牙，每五分钟就有英国航班满载英国人降落，这将是一件非常壮观的事情。”

And he says that, while the delays won't affect EU nationals, who can still use the fast-track lanes -- as long as the UK doesn't impose reciprocal checks on them -- citizens of other countries will be caught up in the chaos.

"We're talking hours and hours in each airport for non-EU citizens," he said. "That isn't a worst case scenario -- it's a plausible worst case. European countries will enforce what they've been told they must enforce.

"The real worst case scenario is 24 hours of delay building up in the first 24 hours."

From there, he says it could spiral to "days-long" waits at passport control.

Although this shouldn't affect travelers making a trip to the UK alone, most non-EU nationals traveling to Europe for the first time pair the UK with the European mainland, says Jenkins. By far the best selling package that his tour operators shift is a twin-center London-Paris trip.

That, he says, is where everyone will be in for a "real shock" in the event of a no deal.

他说，虽然延误不会影响欧盟公民，只要英国不对他们实行对等检查，他们仍然可以使用快速通道，但其他国家的公民将陷入混乱。

“我们在每个机场为非欧盟公民谈了好几个小时，”他说。“这并不是最坏的情况——这似乎是最坏的情况。欧洲国家将执行他们被告知必须执行的任务。

“最糟糕的情况是，在最初的24小时里，拖延时间会持续24小时。”

从那里，他说，可能会螺旋上升到“数天”等待护照检查。

詹金斯说，虽然这不会影响到独自前往英国的游客，但大多数首次前往欧洲的非欧盟国家游客会将英国与欧洲大陆配对。到目前为止，他的旅行社推出的最畅销套餐是伦敦到巴黎的双中心之旅。

他表示，如果不能达成协议，所有人都将面临“真正的冲击”。

His high-end clients will carry on visiting London, Brexit or not, because, he says, it's a business destination. With just one exception.

"If there are riots in the streets [after Brexit], I'm sure you'll see an immediate drop off."

He compares the potential situation to the current unrest in Hong Kong.

"Hong Kong is also a business destination, but people are moving their meetings to the Chinese mainland. Leisure travelers are shifting their base for southeast Asia to Singapore or Bangkok.

"The budget market would be affected first. The bulk are not as well traveled, and are more fearful.

他的高端客户将继续访问伦敦、英国退欧与否，因为他表示，伦敦是一个商业目的地。只有一个例外。

“如果(英国退欧后)出现街头骚乱，我相信你会看到游客数量立即减少。”

他将潜在的形势与香港目前的动荡局势进行了比较。

“香港也是一个商业目的地，但人们正把会议地点迁往中国内地。休闲旅游者正将他们的东南亚基地转移到新加坡或曼谷。

“预算市场将首先受到影响。大部分人不喜欢旅行，而且更害怕。

"The luxury market tends to be better traveled and more suspicious of media messaging, but if it gets to a point of so much noise, they would also move away.

"For us [Americans], going to London isn't a trip of a lifetime. It's not like going to Australia or on a safari you've invested so much in. Most are going for business or for three or four days. If you cancel the day before, it won't change your life."

One American who won't let the noise get to him is Ken Plunkett, a bar owner from Minneapolis.

“奢侈品市场往往更喜欢旅游，也更不信任媒体信息，但如果出现这么多噪音，他们也会搬走。”

“对我们(美国人)来说，去伦敦不是一次一生难忘的旅行。这不像去澳大利亚或你已经投入了这么多钱的狩猎之旅。大多数人都是去出差，或者去三、四天。如果你前一天取消了，也不会改变你的生活。”

来自明尼阿波利斯的酒吧老板肯·普伦基特(Ken Plunkett)是一个美国人，他不会让噪音影响到自己。

He's flying to London on November 2, then on to Italy two days later, before returning home via London.

"I think it'll all work out," he told CNN. "If we have to wait for hours at the border, we have to wait. I won't cancel my trip.

"It reminds me of when we hit the year 2000 and we thought the whole world was going to crash, but nothing happened. I'm kind of taking that attitude."

Not even the prospect of civil unrest can put off Plunkett, who's been visiting Europe since 1965. He wouldn't go to Hong Kong right now because of anti-government protests, but says he'd still travel to London, even if there were riots.

他将于11月2日飞往伦敦，两天后再飞往意大利，然后经伦敦回国。

“我想一切都会解决的，”他告诉CNN。“如果我们必须在边境等上几个小时，我们就必须等待。我不会取消我的旅行。

他说:“这让我想起2000年的时候，我们以为整个世界都会崩溃，但是什么也没有发生。我有点抱着这种态度。”

普朗克特自1965年以来一直访问欧洲，即使是国内动乱的前景也无法阻止他。由于反政府抗议，他现在不会去香港，但他说，即使发生骚乱，他也会去伦敦。

"I understand the people of the UK," he told CNN. "They're not much different from us. We have protests and marches, and it doesn't stop people going to New York City or Washington DC. We're a country with laws and so is the UK.

"I'd give the UK more of a pass than I would other countries."

In the meantime, like Grania O'Hare, he's looking forward to a low-performing pound.

“我理解英国人民，”他告诉CNN。“他们和我们没什么不同。我们有抗议和游行，但这并不会阻止人们前往纽约市或华盛顿特区。我们是一个有法律的国家，英国也是。

“我会给英国比其他国家更多的通行证。”

与此同时，就像格兰尼娅·奥黑尔(Grania O'Hare)一样，他也在期待着一个表现不佳的英镑。

"Sure, I'll spend loads of money," he said. "I don't want to see anyone's economy crash for the few bucks that I'll save, but let's put it this way, we like the strong dollar."

Ezon agrees.

"In the early days of the eurozone, Americans made huge pilgrimages because it was such good value compared to the dollar. People went two or three times a year.

"So assuming things are peaceful, it's a great opportunity to go shop and explore the UK."

“当然，我会花很多钱，”他说。“我不想看到任何人因为我省下的那几美元而导致经济崩溃，但是让我们这么说吧，我们喜欢强势美元。”

Ezon表示同意。

“在欧元区成立初期，美国人进行了大量的朝圣，因为与美元相比，欧元的价值非常高。人们一年去两三次。

“所以，假设一切都很平静，这是一个购物和探索英国的好机会。”

Up until now, it looked like the diminished pound was drawing visitors to a pre-Brexit Britain.

Figures released by Visit Britain show that flight bookings to the UK from September to November are up 5% overall year on year. Bookings from China are up 23%.

But Tom Jenkins, who works with tour operators from around the world, says that global markets frighten easier than the Americans.

到目前为止，英镑贬值似乎正在吸引游客前往英国，退欧前的英国。

英国旅游局(Visit Britain)公布的数据显示，9月至11月前往英国的机票预订量同比增长5%。来自中国的预订量增长了23%。

但与世界各地旅游运营商合作的汤姆•詹金斯(Tom Jenkins)表示，全球市场比美国市场更容易受到惊吓。

"China is a fragile market, and I think that's totally reasonable," he said. "[Coming from] a different culture, you'd be radically affected by stories of disruption and interruption of supply."

And although he thinks that shortages of food, medicine and fuel will affect visitors far less than it does UK residents, he says it's bad optics.

"Food shortages and delays at the border don't make the UK seem a good place to go.

"No deal would be a straightforward catastrophe."

“中国是一个脆弱的市场，我认为这是完全合理的，”他说。“(来自)一种不同的文化，供应中断和中断的故事会从根本上影响你。”

尽管他认为食物、药品和燃料的短缺对游客的影响远小于对英国居民的影响，但他表示，这是糟糕的光学现象。

“食品短缺和边境延误并没有让英国看起来是个好去处。

“没有协议脱欧将是一场直接的灾难。”

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